Crystal Ball

 

The Covid era New Normal looks to require greater sacrifice than the wearing masks to the beach.  Infection rates are on the climb across Europe. Although perhaps we are paying the price of low compliance, to social distancing and mask wearing advice, earlier in the summer. In the UK, the rule of six has been implemented and further restrictive measures seem likely. Where is the balance point to be found in the teetering seesaw triangle of health, liberty and wealth?

On Boulogne's seafront a sculpture celebrates the Entente Cordiale, between Britain and France. It was conceived in 2004, when Brexit was not even a word. Let alone a reality. How is the UK's relationship, with Europe and the rest of the world, going to look by the end of this year? And what will be the impact for us all?

How will cruising under sail, in Europe, be affected? Will visiting sailors be limited to stays of no more than ninety days (as is currently the case for all non - Schengen countries, other than the UK)? It seems likely. That would rule out a full season European cruise (May through to September). Or an extended cruise, overwintering aboard, to extend horizons. With fundamentals, like a trade deal still to negotiate, such niceties will be well down the list of questions for clarification. Will talks be held? And, if so, when. . . .and what will their outcome be?

A more immediate question weighs on my mind. I take the binoculars out onto the inner harbour mole. Watch as Saturday sailors put to sea and leave the protection of the outer harbour walls. They are setting full sail and are only mildly heeled upwind. I would estimate a force four breeze. True, we are in the lee of the land. And true, there are white caps in the offing. But I begin to doubt the forecasts of a force six - unanimous though they are, across multiple sources. Could we have sailed today? I phone Roger, a sailing friend who lives in Ramsgate. "Its blowing a six here. And there are breaking seas in the harbour mouth. Stay put until Monday!" That is one question quickly answered.

We three northbound boats wait on, for our gap in the weather. The southbound boats have sailed. Twenty five knots of tail wind quickly reduces to a comfortable eighteen knots apparent, on a run. Equally, that same twenty five knots as a headwind becomes thirty knots apparent. A rough ride, to be avoided.

 I will be up at dawn tomorrow to check the forecasts, as usual. If the breeze is down, we have a Passenger Locator Form to file (including Passage Plan to reach our home port), before we may sail. Who knows how officialdom will respond to our need to wait for suitable tides and winds? Or a certain vagueness over time and place? Oh for a crystal ball to answer all these questions!